The goal of investing is to increase the amount of money you have.  

Leaving aside how each of us decides what to invest in to that end, how quickly can we expect our total investment to grow?

If you track your investments and keep a daily record in a spreadsheet, you can program it to tell you the percentage change from one day to the next.  

But those daily changes vary:  some are increases, some are decreases; and the percentage changes as well.

A more long-term measure is analyzing how quickly your investments double.  

If we use the S&P 500 Index as a standard, we can get a good overview of the financial well-being of investors over the years.

The S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time on April 15th of 2026.  Looking back to when the S&P was half that, 3500, the date was back in 2020:  that is, the S&P doubled in the six years from 2020 to 2026.

Circumstances which slowed that growth included the nasty inflation of 2022 and 2023, due to President Biden’s monetary policies.

Looking back from 2020, the S&P was half of 3500 in 2014, when it passed 1750:  again, the S&P took six years to double.

Half of 2014’s 1750 is 875.  The S&P first crossed 875 in 1999.  Doubling 875 to 1750 required 15 years.  That period includes the severe recession of 2008, which was due to the housing debacle caused by Presidents Clinton and Bush.  

The S&P crossed the 875 level for the first time in 1999.  But the S&P had actually gone on to reach the  1400s before the housing mess caused the recession of 2008, when the S&P fell through the floor, falling back down again into the 860s.  

If you are old enough to have had investments in 1999, you watched 9 years of your savings wiped out by the politicians.

Half of 1999’s S&P level of 875 takes us back only 7 years, to the 400s in 1992.  That period included the fairly benign Presidencies of Bush Senior and Clinton’s first term, and good gains in the stock market.  

The search for half of 1992’s level in the 400s takes us back to 1986, the year the S&P crossed 200 for the first time.  Investors who lived through the small October recession of 1988 will recall that it looked pretty severe at the time, but the market recovered quickly enough that stock values increased 19 percent in 1989, and continued to grow steadily until the decline in 2000.  

From 1986’s 200 back to the year theS&P first reached 100 presents another cautionary tale.  

The S&P first went above 100 in 1969, while Nixon was President.  But it dropped back in the 90s for 1970 and 1971, before once again going above 100 for 1972 and 1973, and then falling below 100 for 1974, -75, and -76.  

Nixon’s Watergate issues and resignation combined with President Ford’s “caretaker” role were certainly factors.  Then in 1977 the S&P went above 100 – only to fall below 100 again for 1978 and -79, reflecting the lack of confidence in President Carter.  In 1980, the market finally went over 100 for good.  

So in one sense, you could say it took from 1969 to 1986 for the S&P to double.  But you could also say the S&P doubled between 1980 and 1986 – the best of the President Reagan years.  Older investors who had to endure the 1970s would probably favor the 1969-86 timeframe, while Investors just starting out in the 1980s might favor the 1980-86 timeframe.  

Use your own judgement to decide which perspective is preferable.  

Using the S&P 500 as a representative standard assumes that your investments will follow a path similar that of the S&P 500 Index.  As they say in the TV commercials, “Your mileage may differ.”  

History repeats itself.  The rates of doubling of investments described above give you (1) some idea of what you can expect of the stock market in the future, and (2) some awareness of the kinds of external factors which are likely to affect your ability to grow your investments in the coming decades.

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